Palestine
On 7 October 2023, following a breach by Hamas, the dominant governing force in the Gaza Strip in the OPT, the IDF began an armed campaign directly targeting the Palestinian civilian population.
As the conflict progresses, we bear witness to an ethnic cleansing campaign. The crisis has already displaced over 1.2 million Palestinians, triggering an unprecedented exodus of refugees. The horrific scenes broadcasted out of Gaza, in addition to the cruel, inhumane language employed by the Israeli leadership in relation to their victims, warrant the accusation of genocide submitted to the International Court of Justice on 29 December 2023.
The Chronic Crisis Project condemns the collective punishment perpetuated by Israeli forces, as well as the preceding 75 years of apartheid and occupation of Palestinian land.
The IDF assault on South Lebanon and the West Bank only further confirms the genocidal intentions of the current Israeli leadership. An immediate ceasefire and an uncompromising land-back are the only legitimate solutions.
PALESTINE
The Future of the Two State Solution
Written by Omar Tarqhammen
Images from the city of Yafa an-Naseriyye by Mustafa Allbadan
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a complex and long-standing geopolitical and ethno-religious dispute primarily centered around the land of historic Palestine, a region located in the eastern Mediterranean. The conflict involves competing national, historical, religious, and territorial claims by Israelis (primarily Jewish) and Palestinians (primarily Arab Muslims and Christians).
As of December 31, 2022, according to Israeli Prison Service's figures, the Israeli authorities are holding 866 Palestinians in administrative detention, without charge or trial based on alleged secret evidence.
The continued facilitation of the the transfer of Israeli citizens into settlements in the occupied West Bank constitutes a war crime, and leads to tensions increasing each year, leading to catastrophic consequences for both sides.
Background
The history of Palestine spans thousands of years and is characterized by a rich tapestry of cultures, civilizations, conflicts, and shifting political boundaries. From ancient times, it was inhabited by mixed cultures: first home to Canaanites, Philistines, and Jebusites, and later becoming part of the empires of Egypt, Babylon, Assyria and Persia. The 4th century BC conquest by Alexander the Great brought Hellenistic influence to the region. In 63 BC, the Roman Empire conquered Palestine, making it part of the province of Judea. A few years later, the Jewish Revolt challenged the Roman rule. Before the land fell under the control of the Byzantine Empire, it had been renamed by the Romans: ‘Syria Palaestina.’
The first Islamic influences in the area date back to the 7th century CE, when it had been conquered by Islamic Caliphates. Jerusalem found itself to now be a significant religious centre for Christians, Jews and Muslims alike – a status it would continue to hold forever.
The administration of the land then moved very slowly. In 1099, Jerusalem had been captured by Crusaders, leading to the establishment of the Kingdom of Jerusalem. The Crusader states exercised their control over various proportions of Palestine for the next two centuries. From 1517, the land had been gained by the Ottomans for the next four centuries. The geographical position of Palestine had always been its blessing and its curse – strategically priceless, it had been fought over by the strongest players and held tight when conquered.
When the Ottoman Empire collapsed following its defeat in World War I, Palestine came under British control through the mandate of the League of Nations. Tensions began to rise as the indigenous Palestinian population encountered an influx of Jewish immigrants during this time. It had been, however, the second world war, that truly sealed Palestine’s faith as a sovereign nation. Following the horrors of the holocaust, the Allied Forces sought the establishment of a Jewish state. This led to the infamous 1947 United Nations Partition Plan: the UN proposed to create separate Jewish and Arab states in Palestine, designating Jerusalem as an international zone. While the plan had been accepted by the Jewish negotiators, it had been firmly rejected by the Arab leaders, leading to the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, the beginning of the never-ending conflict between the two factions.
The State of Israel had been officially established on May 14th, 1948. This event, in the Arab world referred to as ‘Nakba’ (Catastrophe), directly led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, who became refugees in what was their own state before midnight. The Arab-Israeli conflict therefore continued, and escalated into wars in 1956, 1967 and 1973. Israel ended up occupying the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the entire Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights land.
The international community was invested in peace efforts at the time, and the 1993 Oslo Accords aimed to establish a framework for peace between the Jewish and Palestinian populations. While this initially led to some limited self-governance for Palestinians in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, today remains critical, and no conclusion is in sight.
Two-State Solution
Notable portions of both Israeli and Palestinian inhabitants of the area, as well as international observers, believe that either side has a holy or historical mandate to the land and that no concessions whatsoever should be given to their opponents. However, a more commonly accepted position is that there is a need for the observation of a so-called ‘two-state solution.’
The term refers to a proposed arrangement envisioning the creation of two fully separate and independent states for the Israelis and Palestinians, who would be largely satisfied with their territorial conclusions and the security assurances provided by their counterparts and could therefore be living side by side in peace.
Originally, the idea was calculated in several key elements. The first, naturally, referred to the negotiation surrounding the finalisation of borders between Israel and the future Palestinian state, The most frequent proposal follows the pre-1967 border, also referred to as ‘the Green Line,’ with several potential land swaps to accommodate existing settlements, as well as crucial infrastructure and several geographic considerations. Another huge issue to settle would be the status of the city of Jerusalem, which, as noted above, holds enormous religious significance for Jews and Muslims alike. This is a crucial piece of the negotiations and is often proposed to be resolved by the designation of Jerusalem as the serving capital of both Israel and Palestine. To address the security concerns of both nations, the two-state solution sometimes involves the proposal to demilitarise certain sections of the area, as well as the establishment of a framework of international guarantees and security cooperation between both parties.
However, while Israeli settlements have always formed a crucial piece of the puzzle, the rise in their numbers in recent years suggests that the Israeli government is not preparing for any such resolution – on the contrary. Through the establishment of settlements and outposts on land internationally recognized as Palestinian, Israel weakens Palestinian authority and precludes the potential coherence of a future Palestinian state by restricting its urban expansion. It is generally accepted that the settlements in the Palestinian territories occupied since the 1967 Six-Day War would be in some way ceded to the Palestinian state, possibly involving land swaps with Israel. However, Israel continued to actively encourage its population to occupy contested areas, in many cases forcing Palestinians out of their homes in the process. The settlements not only represent a direct impediment to establishing a Palestinian state, but also compromise water reservoirs, obstruct agricultural progress and split indigenous communities, restricting their ability to function.
The 2023 State of the Conflict
The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank is jeopardizing the feasibility of a two-state resolution and eradicating any potential for peace in the Middle East. By legalizing numerous settlements in the West Bank, successive Israeli administrations have erected an insurmountable barrier to achieving the two-state resolution and the Palestinian aspiration for an autonomous sovereign nation based on the 1967 borders.
As of 2022, 199 settlements and 220 outposts existed in the West Bank. The settlements now encompass over 201.1 square kilometres, accounting for 3.6% of the West Bank's total area. According to Israeli classification, the figures are even more grim: around 542 square kilometres, or 9.6% of the West Bank, fall within Israel's sovereign territory and are marked as "settlement areas of influence."
Divisions introduced by the Israeli separation barrier, designed to shield settlements and their road networks, have compartmentalized the West Bank into three main Palestinian population clusters: the northern segment, encompassing Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm; the central region, housing Ramallah and Al-Bireh; and the southern district, which includes Hebron and Bethlehem. Each of these is in turn partitioned into six enclaves, constituting approximately 68 isolated areas, all under Israeli military control. In addition to being deeply immoral, these divisions intentionally obstruct the southern urban continuity of the Ramallah and Al-Bireh governorates and the northern cohesion of the Bethlehem governorate, contravening Palestinian authority and stifling the potential for any functional Palestinian state.
Escalated Israeli security presence in the West Bank, justified under the guise of safeguarding settlements, and with ongoing provocations by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, frequently results in violent incidents. Establishing a secure and stable Palestinian state, and fostering citizen serenity, becomes exceedingly challenging.
It is not only the Israeli forces that are stirring conflict with the government’s silent blessing: individual settler assaults pose a substantial menace to Palestinian civil peace. In 2020, settlers conducted 127 incursions into Palestinian villages and towns, defacing some 137 Palestinian vehicles with racist inscriptions. Due to the areas adjoining Israeli settlements lying beyond Palestinian security forces' jurisdiction, Palestinian law enforcement is incapable of pursuing culprits who seek refuge in these zones, allowing them to evade capture, perpetuate threats to civil harmony, and jeopardize the future Palestinian state's security. In turn, the Israeli authorities condone such behaviour. On August the 8th, 2023, photos of an Israeli settler Elisha Yered, suspected of the killing of 19-year-old Palestinian Qosai Jammal Mi'tan, went viral. At the dock of the Jerusalem Magistrate's Court, Yered could not be more visibly unbothered, flashing smiles to the cameras.
Sustaining security, stability, and civil peace is unattainable enough when foreign security forces undermine state sovereignty and aggressively target its inhabitants. In addition, however, Israel often sabotages Palestinian infrastructure. It commands the majority of Palestinian surface water sources, such as the Jordan River and the Dead Sea, leaving Palestinians with no recourse but to rely on groundwater. With nearly 70% of Israeli settlements positioned in the eastern basin reservoir of the West Bank, and 45% of all settlements situated in areas vital to the aquifer basin's replenishment, Israeli settlements have laid claim to most Palestinian groundwater. Presently, Israeli settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem number over 750,000, with at least 500,000 settlers in the West Bank alone consuming around 32% of groundwater, while the 3.7 million Palestinians sharing these resources access only 18%. As long as Israeli settlements wield authority over West Bank groundwater resources, establishing a Palestinian state with adequate influence and capacity to fulfil its populace's drinking and irrigation needs remains an unattainable objective.
In connection, the agricultural sector stands as a pivotal economic asset for Palestinians, yet this potentially lucrative resource struggles to thrive amid continual aggressive campaigns that decimate and uproot farmlands in the West Bank. Throughout 2020, approximately 75 instances of settlers attacking Palestinian agricultural lands were documented, leading to the destruction of 6,507 olive trees and vines. Israeli settlements control extensive tracts of fertile agricultural land in the West Bank, and due to bypass roads and the Israeli separation barrier, numerous Palestinian farmers are unable to access their land for planting and harvesting crops. This impedes the potential growth of a green economy for any future Palestinian state. The ability to provide for the populace is one of the crucial requirements of a formal state, and it is the recognition of statehood that Palestine is fundamentally seeking.
Statehood under International Law
While definitions vary, the term ‘statehood’ ordinarily refers to the recognition of sovereign political entity with defined geographical borders, a functioning government, a permanent population, and the ability to enter into relations with other recognised states. This fundamental concept in turn grants the entity rights, such as the right to defend its territory, as well as responsibilities towards its populace and the international community. Customarily, in international law and diplomacy, recognition by the United Nations is taken as a universal acknowledgement of statehood.
Despite the large numbers of refugees and influx of settlers, Palestine can be noted as having permanent population, and could assemble a functioning government capable of exercising control over its territory and providing services to its inhabitants. Palestine has local allies by strong cultural and religious links, and an economic potential as well as a very strategic location, so the recognition of its statehood would most likely deem it a valuable and sought after partner to states in the region as well as globally.
However, Palestine encounters its largest obstacles to statehood on the criteria of defined territory and recognition. A state must have clear and internationally recognised borders, and recognition of sovereignty and legitimacy by other states is, while not a strict requirement, a crucial practical aspect of statehood. This is rather cynical: Israel does not hold to its internationally recognised borders, and indeed its statehood is not acknowledged by 28 states, many of which are its closest neighbours, with several other states not holding diplomatic relations with Israel.
It is the recognition of several key players which the nation truly needs to successfully claim statehood, and Israel was largely supported by the United States and the European Union. This support has wavered in recent months, as the escalation of the settlements programme led to international condemnation. In August 2023, the murder of a 19-year-old Palestinian Qusai Maatan by Israeli settler Elisha Yared, documented as very welcomed and indeed celebrated in some local settlements, had been described as a ‘terrorist attack’ by the US. When Israel later in the month downgraded the charges against the settler, claiming that there had been no racial intent, presumably leading to a much lighter sentence than just, the international community reacted with more eagerness than customary.
Historically, emerging states seeking recognition of their sovereignty did so as a result of decolonisation or secession from existing states. While the process of gaining statehood has never been straightforward and indeed, many communities worldwide seek the status in vain, Palestinian claim is simultaneously more unequivocal and more complex.
The Prospects
The future of Palestine's statehood remains uncertain and subject to unprecedented political, diplomatic, and geopolitical dynamics. Several lines of resolution remain open. As the traditional approach, involving direct negotiations between Israeli and Palestinian leaders to reach a two-state solution, is utterly failing, many promote exploring alternative options.
This includes especially seeking Palestinian statehood by unilateral negotiation, striving for the recognition of statehood through international bodies and organizations. Palestine has already been recognized as a non-member observer state by the UN General Assembly in 2012. Nonetheless, this approach may not lead to full statehood without broader international support, and cynically, also an Israeli agreement.
There is currently no sustainable status quo, as the Israeli goal appears to be seizing control over the entire disputed area. However, international actors, including the United States, the European Union, and regional powers, may continue to engage in peace initiatives aimed at facilitating negotiations and resolving the conflict. While the effectiveness of such initiatives depends on the willingness of both parties to engage, and the evolving geopolitical landscape, this approach may bring resolution especially if paired by grassroots resistance towards Israeli practices, such as localised boycotts of Israeli goods and diplomatic pressure.