Projects
PALESTINE
From Stalemate to Statehood
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a complex and long-standing geopolitical and ethno-religious dispute primarily centered around the land of historic Palestine, a region located in the eastern Mediterranean. The conflict involves competing national, historical, religious, and territorial claims by Israelis (primarily Jewish) and Palestinians (primarily Arab Muslims and Christians). As of December 31, 2022, according to Israeli Prison Service's figures, the Israeli authorities are holding 866 Palestinians in administrative detention, without charge or trial based on alleged secret evidence. The continued facilitation of the the transfer of Israeli citizens into settlements in the occupied West Bank constitutes a war crime, and leads to tensions increasing each year, leading to catastrophic consequences for both sides.
IRAN
Unveiling the Misogyny
Iran underwent a significant political and societal transformation after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, resulting in the establishment of an Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini. The new government implemented strict interpretations of Islamic law, affecting various aspects of public and private life, including dress codes. One of the most visible aspects is the mandatory hijab requirement for women. The government enforces a dress code that includes covering the hair with a headscarf, wearing modest clothing that covers the body, and avoiding tight-fitting attire. Violations of the dress code can result in fines, arrests, and even imprisonment. The September 2022 Iranian ‘morality police’ beating to death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini sparked international outrage and the strongest challenge to the regime since its inception.
LIBYA
International Actors
Since the removal and subsequent demise of former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in October 2011, Libya has grappled with significant challenges in the process of reconstructing its governmental institutions. In July 2012, Libya's provisional administration handed over authority to the recently elected General National Congress; however, the GNC confronted a multitude of difficulties in the subsequent two years, including the September 2012 Islamist militants assault on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, which had far-reaching repercussions. The proliferation of armed groups, including the Islamic State, throughout the nation further complicated the situation. Foreign nations also displayed a keen interest in Libya's affairs. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France, and Russia lent their support to Haftar’s LNA, while Turkey, Qatar, and Italy backed the UN-endorsed GNA. In October 2022, the GNA inked a deal with Turkey to initiate oil and gas exploration off its coastline. Greece and Egypt, both in maritime border disputes with Libya, denounced Turkey's actions, raising the prospect of potential conflict in the Mediterranean region.
SUDAN
Holding a Nation Hostage
A new chapter of the Sudan conflict erupted in mid-April , when a renewed power struggle exploded between two rival military factions. The Sudanese army, led by de facto leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, clashed with the RSF, a coalition of militias loyal to Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. Initially, in 2019, these groups had cooperated to remove Sudan's former authoritarian leader, Omar Bashir, prosecuted by the ICC for war crimes, and to establish a power-sharing arrangement with civilian entities. However, this coalition crumbled in 2021 following a military coup orchestrated by the Sudanese army and the RSF, thwarting Sudan's brief advancement towards democracy. Subsequently, the factions turned against each other, particularly after negotiations to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese army faltered. Determining the hierarchy in their new structure remains a central issue, while thousands of civilians lost their lives, with millions internally displaced and on the move.
KOSOVO
Boycotting the Vote
Kosovo has faced a series of crises from its inception, yet its recent confrontations are being characterized as some of the most intense. Tensions started to escalate in late May 2023, following the assumption of office by ethnically Albanian mayors. The turnout for the snap local elections in April was remarkably low, at just 3.47%, as the majority of the Serbian population in northern Kosovo boycotted the vote. They proclaimed that their abstention is the result of the disregard the government had shown towards their calls for increased autonomy. On May 29, during demonstrations staged by Serb protesters, clashes transpired, leading to over 40 injuries among the Kosovo Force - the NATO peacekeeping contingent, which had been safeguarding municipal structures. In the aftermath, protests have subsided, but persist.
SYRIA
12 Years of Civil War
The Syrian conflict, commencing over 12 years ago, has resulted in the loss of more than 350,000 lives and the displacement of half of Syria's inhabitants. In a blatant violation of international laws of warfare, chemical weapons have been employed against civilians. Assisted by Iran and Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad currently holds sway over the majority of the country, and is expected to maintain his position. The Arab League's decision to reinstate Syria's membership in May 2023, after having suspended it at the conflict's onset in 2011, further solidified Assad's authority. The Islamic State/Daesh no longer maintains control over any territories, however remains a threat, helf in check largely by the Kurdish forces, which retain substantial influence in northeastern Syria. Concurrently, various armed opposition factions, including the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group associated with Al-Qaeda, exert control over regions around Idlib in the northwest. Turkey is also engaged in military operations in Syria and Iraq, primarily aimed at curbing the Kurdish-led SDF in Syria and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, both of which it (together with the EU and the U.S.) classifies as terrorist groups. Meanwhile, the civilian populace in Syria contends with dire destitution, ranking among the most impoverished globally.
ETHIOPIA
Keeping a Ceasefire
The devastating two-year-long armed confrontation in northern Ethiopia, initiated in November 2020, exacts a grim toll on civilians. A ceasefire was brokered between the primary conflicting factions in November. Within some areas, notably Oromia, both state security forces and armed factions perpetrated grave violations. The authorities intermittently severed internet and communication services in regions impacted by the conflict, with Tigray experiencing such communication cuts since June 2021. The confluence of conflict, turmoil in numerous regions, and the advent of drought further exacerbated what stands as one of the planet's most extensive humanitarian crises. In 2022, over 20 million people needed humanitarian aid. Furthermore, journalists and civil society organizations within the nation encounter an increasingly antagonistic and restrictive milieu for reporting and advocacy.
MALI
Press Under Attack
In 2022, the government of Mali escalated its repression of media outlets and dissenting voices, constricting the space for civic engagement. These transgressions unfolded against the backdrop of an ongoing political turmoil and strained relations with Mali's diplomatic allies due to the decision to engage the services of the Wagner Group, a private military security contractor with strong affiliations to the Russian government. The transitional government, which assumed control following a coup in 2021, the second such military upheaval in under a year, hindered efforts to probe the increasing claims of misconduct by state actors. Impunity endured for past and present violations perpetrated by all armed factions. Progress in reinstating state authority and essential services, including the judiciary, remained minimal. The humanitarian crisis deepened due to global food shortages, the impacts of climate change, and, for a portion of the year, regional economic sanctions arising from the political turmoil. The count of the internally displaced escalated from the previous year, reaching 422,000.
MOZAMBIQUE
At the UN Security Council
Mozambique experiences ongoing assaults perpetrated by a group linked to ISIS, locally recognized as "Mashababos" or Al-Shabab. Mozambican armed forces, aided by troops from Rwanda and the regional force of the Southern African Development Community, markedly bolstered their presence in the affected areas, reclaiming territories previously under insurgent control. The situation maintained its unpredictability throughout 2022, as clashes shifted to previously unaffected southern zones of Cabo Delgado and northern parts of Nampula province. Government security forces across the nation continue to employ force and arbitrary detentions to curtail individuals' right to engage in peaceful protests. The domain of press freedom encountered pressures, with new legislations that restricted freedom of expression and impinged on the work of journalists being discussed or enacted in the national parliament. The European Union has now granted additional military assistance to the SADC mission in Mozambique (SAMIM). Moreover, Mozambique secured a two-year non-permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council, commencing in January 2023.
MEXICO
Drug Cartel Rule
Mexico grapples with a long-term crisis characterized by kidnappings, disappearances, and drug-related criminal violence, resulting in a direct annual death toll exceeding thirty thousand individuals. The 2023 unrest in Sinaloa commenced on January 5, 2023, subsequent to the apprehension of Ovidio Guzmán, the son of incarcerated drug lord Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán, instigating a wave of turmoil within the state of Sinaloa. As a reprisal for Ovidio Guzmán's arrest, members of the cartel obstructed roadways with incendiary vehicles and initiated assaults against the armed forces. In an incident reflecting the escalating situation, bullets targeted two aircraft (one civilian and the other military), prompting the closure of Culiacán International Airport. By January 13, the Mexican Secretary of the Interior, Adán Augusto López Hernández, proclaimed that "normalcy has been reinstated" in Sinaloa. Official records indicate the casualties encompassed ten soldiers, one police officer, and nineteen suspected members of the Sinaloa Cartel. The intensity of the violence compelled the Mexican military to undertake a series of armed operations, employing planes and helicopters to engage cartel affiliates. This represents only the latest outburst of violence in a decades long crisis.
CYPRUS
The Last Divided Capital
Since 1974, the majority of Cyprus's Greek and Turkish Cypriots have resided separately in distinct northern and southern regions of the island, demarcated by a UN-controlled buffer zone. The Cypriot capital city, Nicosia, remains the last divided capital in the world. The buffer zone, known as the 'Green Line,' spans about 180 km across the island. In some parts of the historic Nicosia, it narrows down to a mere few meters, while in other sections, it expands to several kilometres. Its boundaries to the north and south coincide with the positions held by the conflicting parties after the ceasefire of August 16, 1974, as documented by UNFICYP. In alignment with UN's mission to work toward restoring normal conditions, various segments of the buffer zone are utilized for agriculture and habitation. Several villages and designated zones (referred to as Civil Use Areas) within the buffer zone accommodate a population of over 10,000 people, with civilians enjoying unrestricted access to these locations. Outside of these areas, any civilian movement or activities necessitate specific authorization from UNFICYP. In contrast to Civil Use Areas, certain portions of the buffer zone remain untouched by human presence. Vestiges of former villages, shops, and remnants from bygone lives are scattered throughout. UNFICYP diligently monitors the buffer zone around the clock. Moreover, highly mobile units remain prepared to swiftly address emergencies. Around 1,000 incidents transpire within the buffer zone each year, ranging from mere verbal altercations to unauthorized firearm usage.
AFGHANISTAN
19.4 Million Women
Since assuming control of Afghanistan on the 15th of August 2021, the Taliban authorities have further intensified their stringent limitations on the rights of women and girls. The state is systematically curtailing female entitlements to education, employment, mobility, and assembly. The Taliban's actions have also led to substantial media censorship and restricted access to information, alongside a heightened frequency of arrests targeting journalists and other dissenting voices. The situation in Afghanistan has devolved into one of the globe's most dire humanitarian crises, with over 28 million individuals – accounting for two-thirds of the populace – urgently requiring humanitarian aid. According to the UN, four million people face acute malnutrition, including 3.2 million children under the age of 5. This emergency is accelerated by severe weather incidents. The nation also grapples with widespread unemployment. Numerous jobs titles have been lost to the conflict and resource shortage, particularly among women who have been terminated from their positions, and prohibitions have been enforced against women's employment within humanitarian organizations, save for limited spheres.
SOUTH SUDAN
The Making and the Fall of a State
The people of South Sudan endured yet another year marred by violence, famine, and formidable trials in 2022. The ongoing conflict is marked by violent confrontations among armed factions in Upper Nile, southern Central Equatoria, and southern Unity states, and has led to widespread displacements and grave abuses, some of which could potentially meet the criteria for war crimes or crimes against humanity. The scourge of conflict-related sexual violence endured. Communal and multi-dimensional hostilities persisted across much of the nation, resulting in fatalities, mass displacements, pillaging, and extensive property destruction. In parallel, the authorities maintained a pattern of intimidating, harassing, and subjecting critics, journalists, demonstrators, and human rights advocates to arbitrary detentions without affording them a fair trial. The nation faced its most severe humanitarian predicament since its inception, with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs revealing that a minimum of 7.7 million individuals grappled with food insecurity. Over 2.2 million people experienced internal displacement, further compounded by an additional 2.3 million individuals who sought refuge beyond the country's borders. On the 30th of May 2023, the UN Security Council voted to extend sanctions against South Sudan for another year. While the UN SC rightfully seeks to condemn violations of human rights and international humanitarian law by all parties, the targeting of civil society, including journalists, human rights defenders and humanitarian personnel, in practice, the worst effects are often felt by those very civilians.
YEMEN
The Curse of Crude Oil
The civil war in Yemen began in 2014 as a spill-over of legitimate grievances of the populace, and has since escalated into an all-encompassing conflict which left the nation on the prospering Arabian Peninsula with one of the highest poverty rates in the world. On the 1st of April 2022, the UN disclosed its achievement of brokering a two-month truce accord between the Houthi armed faction and the Saudi and United Arab Emirates-led coalition in Yemen. Subsequently, the truce was extended for an additional two months on June 2 and August 2. However, on October 2, the conflicting parties failed to prolong the temporary ceasefire. Throughout the truce's duration, Yemen continued to witness violations and transgressions, including unlawful attacks resulting in civilian casualties, restrictions impeding the movement of individuals and humanitarian aid to and from Taizz, the third-largest city in Yemen, as well as arbitrary detentions and coerced internal displacement. After more than seven years, the enduring conflict in Yemen has precipitated one of the world's most substantial humanitarian emergencies. The UN has repeatedly appealed to all parties to the conflict to cease hostilities and allow for the safe passage of aid and the establishment of humanitarian corridors. Over 20 million Yemenis are in dire need of aid, grappling with insufficient access to food, healthcare, and basic infrastructure. The conflict has encompassed illicit assaults on civilian establishments such as residences, medical facilities, schools, and bridges, marked by deliberate and indiscriminate actions.
SOMALILAND
The Non-Nation Nation
Somaliland, asserting its independence from Somalia but lacking international recognition, has experienced an ongoing erosion of political freedoms and civic space. The 2021 elections ushered in a fresh legislative mandate for elected representatives, and decisions issued by national authorities are enforced across the majority of Somaliland's claimed territory. Nonetheless, persistent delays in holding elections have intermittently cast doubt on the legitimacy of the elected government, a trend that persisted in 2022. In September, the National Electoral Commission announced the postponement of the presidential election, citing "time, technical, and financial constraints." Additionally, the Guurti government unilaterally extended its own mandate, which had already lapsed, by an additional five years. Additionally, journalists have encountered arbitrary detentions, threats, and physical attacks, with a prevailing climate of impunity for these offenses. In April 2022, law enforcement apprehended 10 journalists while they were reporting on an attempted large-scale prison escape in Hargeisa.
AFGHANISTAN
Frozen Still
Since assuming control of Afghanistan on the 15th of August 2021, the Taliban authorities have further intensified their stringent limitations on the rights of women and girls. The state is systematically curtailing female entitlements to education, employment, mobility, and assembly. The Taliban's actions have also led to substantial media censorship and restricted access to information, alongside a heightened frequency of arrests targeting journalists and other dissenting voices. The situation in Afghanistan has devolved into one of the globe's most dire humanitarian crises, with over 28 million individuals – accounting for two-thirds of the populace – urgently requiring humanitarian aid. According to the UN, four million people face acute malnutrition, including 3.2 million children under the age of 5. This emergency is accelerated by severe weather incidents. The nation also grapples with widespread unemployment. Numerous jobs titles have been lost to the conflict and resource shortage, particularly among women who have been terminated from their positions, and prohibitions have been enforced against women's employment within humanitarian organizations, save for limited spheres.
PALESTINE
The Future of the Two State Solution
Written by Omar Tarqhammen
Images from the city of Yafa an-Naseriyye by Mustafa Allbadan
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a complex and long-standing geopolitical and ethno-religious dispute primarily centered around the land of historic Palestine, a region located in the eastern Mediterranean. The conflict involves competing national, historical, religious, and territorial claims by Israelis (primarily Jewish) and Palestinians (primarily Arab Muslims and Christians).
As of December 31, 2022, according to Israeli Prison Service's figures, the Israeli authorities are holding 866 Palestinians in administrative detention, without charge or trial based on alleged secret evidence.
The continued facilitation of the the transfer of Israeli citizens into settlements in the occupied West Bank constitutes a war crime, and leads to tensions increasing each year, leading to catastrophic consequences for both sides.
Background
The history of Palestine spans thousands of years and is characterized by a rich tapestry of cultures, civilizations, conflicts, and shifting political boundaries. From ancient times, it was inhabited by mixed cultures: first home to Canaanites, Philistines, and Jebusites, and later becoming part of the empires of Egypt, Babylon, Assyria and Persia. The 4th century BC conquest by Alexander the Great brought Hellenistic influence to the region. In 63 BC, the Roman Empire conquered Palestine, making it part of the province of Judea. A few years later, the Jewish Revolt challenged the Roman rule. Before the land fell under the control of the Byzantine Empire, it had been renamed by the Romans: ‘Syria Palaestina.’
The first Islamic influences in the area date back to the 7th century CE, when it had been conquered by Islamic Caliphates. Jerusalem found itself to now be a significant religious centre for Christians, Jews and Muslims alike – a status it would continue to hold forever.
The administration of the land then moved very slowly. In 1099, Jerusalem had been captured by Crusaders, leading to the establishment of the Kingdom of Jerusalem. The Crusader states exercised their control over various proportions of Palestine for the next two centuries. From 1517, the land had been gained by the Ottomans for the next four centuries. The geographical position of Palestine had always been its blessing and its curse – strategically priceless, it had been fought over by the strongest players and held tight when conquered.
When the Ottoman Empire collapsed following its defeat in World War I, Palestine came under British control through the mandate of the League of Nations. Tensions began to rise as the indigenous Palestinian population encountered an influx of Jewish immigrants during this time. It had been, however, the second world war, that truly sealed Palestine’s faith as a sovereign nation. Following the horrors of the holocaust, the Allied Forces sought the establishment of a Jewish state. This led to the infamous 1947 United Nations Partition Plan: the UN proposed to create separate Jewish and Arab states in Palestine, designating Jerusalem as an international zone. While the plan had been accepted by the Jewish negotiators, it had been firmly rejected by the Arab leaders, leading to the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, the beginning of the never-ending conflict between the two factions.
The State of Israel had been officially established on May 14th, 1948. This event, in the Arab world referred to as ‘Nakba’ (Catastrophe), directly led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, who became refugees in what was their own state before midnight. The Arab-Israeli conflict therefore continued, and escalated into wars in 1956, 1967 and 1973. Israel ended up occupying the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the entire Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights land.
The international community was invested in peace efforts at the time, and the 1993 Oslo Accords aimed to establish a framework for peace between the Jewish and Palestinian populations. While this initially led to some limited self-governance for Palestinians in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, today remains critical, and no conclusion is in sight.
Two-State Solution
Notable portions of both Israeli and Palestinian inhabitants of the area, as well as international observers, believe that either side has a holy or historical mandate to the land and that no concessions whatsoever should be given to their opponents. However, a more commonly accepted position is that there is a need for the observation of a so-called ‘two-state solution.’
The term refers to a proposed arrangement envisioning the creation of two fully separate and independent states for the Israelis and Palestinians, who would be largely satisfied with their territorial conclusions and the security assurances provided by their counterparts and could therefore be living side by side in peace.
Originally, the idea was calculated in several key elements. The first, naturally, referred to the negotiation surrounding the finalisation of borders between Israel and the future Palestinian state, The most frequent proposal follows the pre-1967 border, also referred to as ‘the Green Line,’ with several potential land swaps to accommodate existing settlements, as well as crucial infrastructure and several geographic considerations. Another huge issue to settle would be the status of the city of Jerusalem, which, as noted above, holds enormous religious significance for Jews and Muslims alike. This is a crucial piece of the negotiations and is often proposed to be resolved by the designation of Jerusalem as the serving capital of both Israel and Palestine. To address the security concerns of both nations, the two-state solution sometimes involves the proposal to demilitarise certain sections of the area, as well as the establishment of a framework of international guarantees and security cooperation between both parties.
However, while Israeli settlements have always formed a crucial piece of the puzzle, the rise in their numbers in recent years suggests that the Israeli government is not preparing for any such resolution – on the contrary. Through the establishment of settlements and outposts on land internationally recognized as Palestinian, Israel weakens Palestinian authority and precludes the potential coherence of a future Palestinian state by restricting its urban expansion. It is generally accepted that the settlements in the Palestinian territories occupied since the 1967 Six-Day War would be in some way ceded to the Palestinian state, possibly involving land swaps with Israel. However, Israel continued to actively encourage its population to occupy contested areas, in many cases forcing Palestinians out of their homes in the process. The settlements not only represent a direct impediment to establishing a Palestinian state, but also compromise water reservoirs, obstruct agricultural progress and split indigenous communities, restricting their ability to function.
The 2023 State of the Conflict
The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank is jeopardizing the feasibility of a two-state resolution and eradicating any potential for peace in the Middle East. By legalizing numerous settlements in the West Bank, successive Israeli administrations have erected an insurmountable barrier to achieving the two-state resolution and the Palestinian aspiration for an autonomous sovereign nation based on the 1967 borders.
As of 2022, 199 settlements and 220 outposts existed in the West Bank. The settlements now encompass over 201.1 square kilometres, accounting for 3.6% of the West Bank's total area. According to Israeli classification, the figures are even more grim: around 542 square kilometres, or 9.6% of the West Bank, fall within Israel's sovereign territory and are marked as "settlement areas of influence."
Divisions introduced by the Israeli separation barrier, designed to shield settlements and their road networks, have compartmentalized the West Bank into three main Palestinian population clusters: the northern segment, encompassing Nablus, Jenin, and Tulkarm; the central region, housing Ramallah and Al-Bireh; and the southern district, which includes Hebron and Bethlehem. Each of these is in turn partitioned into six enclaves, constituting approximately 68 isolated areas, all under Israeli military control. In addition to being deeply immoral, these divisions intentionally obstruct the southern urban continuity of the Ramallah and Al-Bireh governorates and the northern cohesion of the Bethlehem governorate, contravening Palestinian authority and stifling the potential for any functional Palestinian state.
Escalated Israeli security presence in the West Bank, justified under the guise of safeguarding settlements, and with ongoing provocations by Israeli settlers against Palestinians, frequently results in violent incidents. Establishing a secure and stable Palestinian state, and fostering citizen serenity, becomes exceedingly challenging.
It is not only the Israeli forces that are stirring conflict with the government’s silent blessing: individual settler assaults pose a substantial menace to Palestinian civil peace. In 2020, settlers conducted 127 incursions into Palestinian villages and towns, defacing some 137 Palestinian vehicles with racist inscriptions. Due to the areas adjoining Israeli settlements lying beyond Palestinian security forces' jurisdiction, Palestinian law enforcement is incapable of pursuing culprits who seek refuge in these zones, allowing them to evade capture, perpetuate threats to civil harmony, and jeopardize the future Palestinian state's security. In turn, the Israeli authorities condone such behaviour. On August the 8th, 2023, photos of an Israeli settler Elisha Yered, suspected of the killing of 19-year-old Palestinian Qosai Jammal Mi'tan, went viral. At the dock of the Jerusalem Magistrate's Court, Yered could not be more visibly unbothered, flashing smiles to the cameras.
Sustaining security, stability, and civil peace is unattainable enough when foreign security forces undermine state sovereignty and aggressively target its inhabitants. In addition, however, Israel often sabotages Palestinian infrastructure. It commands the majority of Palestinian surface water sources, such as the Jordan River and the Dead Sea, leaving Palestinians with no recourse but to rely on groundwater. With nearly 70% of Israeli settlements positioned in the eastern basin reservoir of the West Bank, and 45% of all settlements situated in areas vital to the aquifer basin's replenishment, Israeli settlements have laid claim to most Palestinian groundwater. Presently, Israeli settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem number over 750,000, with at least 500,000 settlers in the West Bank alone consuming around 32% of groundwater, while the 3.7 million Palestinians sharing these resources access only 18%. As long as Israeli settlements wield authority over West Bank groundwater resources, establishing a Palestinian state with adequate influence and capacity to fulfil its populace's drinking and irrigation needs remains an unattainable objective.
In connection, the agricultural sector stands as a pivotal economic asset for Palestinians, yet this potentially lucrative resource struggles to thrive amid continual aggressive campaigns that decimate and uproot farmlands in the West Bank. Throughout 2020, approximately 75 instances of settlers attacking Palestinian agricultural lands were documented, leading to the destruction of 6,507 olive trees and vines. Israeli settlements control extensive tracts of fertile agricultural land in the West Bank, and due to bypass roads and the Israeli separation barrier, numerous Palestinian farmers are unable to access their land for planting and harvesting crops. This impedes the potential growth of a green economy for any future Palestinian state. The ability to provide for the populace is one of the crucial requirements of a formal state, and it is the recognition of statehood that Palestine is fundamentally seeking.
Statehood under International Law
While definitions vary, the term ‘statehood’ ordinarily refers to the recognition of sovereign political entity with defined geographical borders, a functioning government, a permanent population, and the ability to enter into relations with other recognised states. This fundamental concept in turn grants the entity rights, such as the right to defend its territory, as well as responsibilities towards its populace and the international community. Customarily, in international law and diplomacy, recognition by the United Nations is taken as a universal acknowledgement of statehood.
Despite the large numbers of refugees and influx of settlers, Palestine can be noted as having permanent population, and could assemble a functioning government capable of exercising control over its territory and providing services to its inhabitants. Palestine has local allies by strong cultural and religious links, and an economic potential as well as a very strategic location, so the recognition of its statehood would most likely deem it a valuable and sought after partner to states in the region as well as globally.
However, Palestine encounters its largest obstacles to statehood on the criteria of defined territory and recognition. A state must have clear and internationally recognised borders, and recognition of sovereignty and legitimacy by other states is, while not a strict requirement, a crucial practical aspect of statehood. This is rather cynical: Israel does not hold to its internationally recognised borders, and indeed its statehood is not acknowledged by 28 states, many of which are its closest neighbours, with several other states not holding diplomatic relations with Israel.
It is the recognition of several key players which the nation truly needs to successfully claim statehood, and Israel was largely supported by the United States and the European Union. This support has wavered in recent months, as the escalation of the settlements programme led to international condemnation. In August 2023, the murder of a 19-year-old Palestinian Qusai Maatan by Israeli settler Elisha Yared, documented as very welcomed and indeed celebrated in some local settlements, had been described as a ‘terrorist attack’ by the US. When Israel later in the month downgraded the charges against the settler, claiming that there had been no racial intent, presumably leading to a much lighter sentence than just, the international community reacted with more eagerness than customary.
Historically, emerging states seeking recognition of their sovereignty did so as a result of decolonisation or secession from existing states. While the process of gaining statehood has never been straightforward and indeed, many communities worldwide seek the status in vain, Palestinian claim is simultaneously more unequivocal and more complex.
The Prospects
The future of Palestine's statehood remains uncertain and subject to unprecedented political, diplomatic, and geopolitical dynamics. Several lines of resolution remain open. As the traditional approach, involving direct negotiations between Israeli and Palestinian leaders to reach a two-state solution, is utterly failing, many promote exploring alternative options.
This includes especially seeking Palestinian statehood by unilateral negotiation, striving for the recognition of statehood through international bodies and organizations. Palestine has already been recognized as a non-member observer state by the UN General Assembly in 2012. Nonetheless, this approach may not lead to full statehood without broader international support, and cynically, also an Israeli agreement.
There is currently no sustainable status quo, as the Israeli goal appears to be seizing control over the entire disputed area. However, international actors, including the United States, the European Union, and regional powers, may continue to engage in peace initiatives aimed at facilitating negotiations and resolving the conflict. While the effectiveness of such initiatives depends on the willingness of both parties to engage, and the evolving geopolitical landscape, this approach may bring resolution especially if paired by grassroots resistance towards Israeli practices, such as localised boycotts of Israeli goods and diplomatic pressure.